US commercial solar installs rose 11% in the second quarter while home solar hit a five-year low
SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, Q3 2026 Solar Market Insight: 11.4 GWdc installed in Q2 2026, up 45% on a year earlier. Commercial up 11%, driven by California NEM 2.0 projects; community solar down 14%; residential 995 MWdc, the lowest in five years. Safe-harboured pipeline over 200 GWdc.
Business roofs had a better quarter than house roofs in the US this spring. The reason is a deadline in California.
Wood Mackenzie reported on 10 September 2026, in the Q3 2026 Solar Market Insight with SEIA, that the US installed 11.4 GWdc of solar in the second quarter, up 45% year on year. Utility-scale made up about 10 GWdc, up 61%. Residential fell to 995 MWdc, a five-year low, and is forecast down 23% for 2026.
Commercial solar grew 11% year on year, driven by California projects still built under NEM 2.0 rules. Community solar fell 14%. Permitting delays affect about 30% of the early-stage pipeline, and the safe-harboured pipeline, projects that locked in tax credit eligibility, is above 200 GWdc. TaiyangNews covered the same figures on 11 September.
Analogy: it is a shop selling more raincoats the week before the price goes up. Strong sales, but some of that is people buying early.
Good: commercial is growing while home solar shrinks. Installers have a reason to chase business roofs.
Bad: the California boost comes from older rules running out. The figures do not show what happens after.
Ugly: a third of the early-stage pipeline is held up by permitting. Planned projects do not equal installed ones.
Source: Wood Mackenzie, 10 Sep 2026 - US solar's foundation holds strong; TaiyangNews, 11 Sep 2026 - US solar installations Q2 2026.